Lukewarm housing market served up at CIPH Ontario Region business meeting
October 2, 2014
The Canadian Institute of Plumbing & Heating (CIPH) hosted its first of three Ontario Region business meeting’s for the 2014-15 season on October 1 in Mississauga, ON at the Mississauga Convention Centre. Seventy-five CIPH members were on hand for the business lunch, which featured Peter Norman from the Altus Group, who is also the author of CIPH’s Quarterly Economic Review “The Outlook.”
Norman provided a housing market outlook for Canada during his presentation. “The temperature of the market is lukewarm: not too hot, not too cold,” he said. “I certainly don’t think there’s a housing bubble that’s about to burst. I think it’s very middling right now.”
Norman explained the different cycles the Canadian housing market has gone through in recent years. Typically it will peak in the range of around 250,000 new housing starts per year and stay up there for around 10 to 15 years, and then it will decline to around 150,000 per year for a period of eight to 10 years. He noted the current housing boom peaked in 2006 and we are on the downside of the curve, averaging around 150,000 to 200,000 new housing starts per year.
Norman said there has been a shift in recent years from buying larger houses to smaller units, and more people moving to Western Canadian provinces. However, Ontario still remains the most popular choice for immigration in Canada. With the recent arrival of higher than normal numbers of immigrants, he predicts that in nine to 10 years from now there will be an increase in single family housing starts as this group moves from being renters to homeowners.
Although the percentage of people renting condos has significantly increased in recent years, Martin predicts that condo demand will soon fall off and single family housing demand will pick up.
As for interest rates, Norman said do not expect any drastic changes in the near future. “We’re in a fairly low and steady period,” he said.
The next CIPH Ontario Region Business Meeting will take place on January 15, 2015. The featured speaker will be former Toronto mayor David Miller, who will offer an inside look at the upcoming Pan Am Games.