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Cloud of uncertainty lifted says BMO economist


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October 30, 2018

CIPH chairman Allan Taylor apprised business meeting attendees of the town hall to be held November 20 where industry association risks, means of growing membership, improving the educational program and ongoing sources of revenue will be reviewed.

Douglas Porter, CFA, chief economist with BMO Financial Group, painted a reasonably positive economic picture at CIPH Ontario region’s first business meeting at the Mississauga Convention Centre.

With the signing of the tariff agreements Porter noted that a big risk was taken off the table. The subsequent “muted market response was because an agreement was expected all along,” explained Porter.

In terms of concessions, he noted U.S. access to 3.6 per cent of Canada’s protected dairy market and the raising of de minimis limits, which he expects will pressure Canadian retailers. Wins, according to Porter, include benefits to Canada’s auto sector from Mexico’s concessions; the retaining of the dispute settlement mechanism; and the Sunset clause with its 16-year lifespan and 6-year review period.

Porter, who has over 25 years of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets, cited concerns around the deal as well: steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place and any future trade deal with China must be vetted by U.S. and Mexico.

Attendance was healthy at the October 25 event. Notably it attracted the highest number of first-time attendees to date.

The next business meeting will be held January 30, 2019 and features Gilles Essiambre on the topic of increasing effectiveness through the strategic and effective use of technology.

Speaker Chris Cummins will address leadership at the final business meeting on April 11, 2019. www.ciph.com


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